#83 Niccolo Machiavelli – On Conspiracies

I would like to start, like Machiavelli starts his essay on conspiracies, by stating that this blog is completely opposed to the idea of overthrowing the government and installing yourself as ruler. Completely and totally. It would never work, and it would be a very naughty thing.

“In order that princes may learn how to guard against these dangers, and that private persons may think twice before undertaking them and may learn, instead, to be content with life under the regime which fate has placed over them, I shall speak of conspiracies at length, omitting nothing.”

So don’t try this at home. Wink, wink.

Actually, in all fairness, Machiavelli really doesn’t mean this as a how-to guide for knifing your prince.* If he’d been born five hundred years later, he would have found a comfortable job in the political science department of the University of Florence writing articles about factors influencing the outcomes of civil unrest. As it was, he has the honour of being the first person to itemise how Italian politicians were murderous, lying bastards – and look at the thanks it got him.**

Here, he’s mostly looking to understand how it is that a conspiracy can succeed or fail, especially given the regularity with which they seemed to occur in renaissance Italy. According to Machiavelli, there are three basic places where a conspiracy can be undone – during the planning, during the execution and during the aftermath. He is very clear that the deck is stacked firmly against the conspirators:

“Few conspiracies prove successful because it is impossible, or almost impossible, to pass through all three stages successfully.”

Part of the trouble is that there’s no such thing as a reliable conspirator. However much of an academic he might be, Machiavelli clearly understands the logic of betrayal. Just as he can see the situations that lead people into conspiracies, he also knows that many conspirators might be rather tempted by a chance to win their way back into the prince’s favour.

“There may be one or two people whom you can trust, but it is impossible to find such men if you reveal your plans to many people, for the goodwill they bear you must be great if the danger and the fear of punishment is not to outweigh it in their estimation.”

Keep most of your conspirators firmly in the dark. For preference, only ever tell one person what you are planning, so that in the worst case scenario it will be their word against yours. And never, ever write anything down – Machiavelli has a list of historical conspirators who offered their allies written guarantees which ultimately proved to be their death warrants.

The day of the plot itself, there are a thousand things that can go wrong. What seemed like a perfect plan may go awry because of a last-minute change, or a garbled message, or just a piece of pure chance that saves the target’s life. Failing that, nerves may mean the right moment slips past, or some idiot will try to over-act the scene.

“Quintinianus lay in wait for Commodus at the entrance to the amphitheatre, and, going up to him with a naked dagger, greeted him with the words ‘The Senate sends you this!’, words which led to his being arrested before he had lowered his arm to strike.”

Then, even if you do succeed in killing your tyrant, you should always be wary of his friends or family managing to strike back at you and hold on to power. Conspirators in Forli killed the Count and captured his wife, Lady Catherine, and children. They had yet to take control of the fortress that dominated the town, and the wife offered to go in and negotiate their surrender. The conspirators decided to let her try, but kept her children back as hostages, promising to kill them if she tried any trickery.

“On this understanding, the conspirators let he go to the citadel, from the walls of which, when she got inside, she reproached them with killing her husband and threatened them with vengeance in every shape and form. And to convince them that she did not mind about her children she exposed her sexual parts to them and said she was still capable of bearing more. The conspirators, dumbfounded, realised their mistake too late and paid the penalty for their lack of prudence by suffering perpetual banishment.”

You see what I was saying about Burckhardt…

I‘m not quite sure whether Machiavelli is on the side of the princes, whether he prefers stability to conspiracy, or if he just doesn’t like the odds of being a conspirator – whatever the reason, he honestly seems to believe that conspiracy is a bad idea. Too risky, and something you shouldn’t attempt if you have any sense. Look at how strongly he suggests you leave the idea well alone.

But then, isn’t that what the best conspirator would want you to think…

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* Insert knife A into Prince B.

** And the progress we’ve made since. I’ve written before about how Machiavelli tends to be misunderstood, and it’s worth noting here that his main advice to princes wanting to avoid conspiracies is to stop acting like a tyrant and making people want to kill you.